This will be the third season in a row that the Portland Stags have made the Western Conference Finals. In the previous two matches they had homefield advantage and were heavily favored to go to the MLU Championship. Neither time they were successful. This time around they will have the chance to get revenge on the team who knocked them out last year, the Seattle Rainmakers. Not much is different, Portland dominated the regular season series (3-0), and are motivated to finally make it to the title game.
All Time Records:
Portland: 27-15 (.643) | Seattle: 25-18 (.581) |
Portland (9-1) is a team that we knew was going to be here at the start of the season. They returned 24 players from 2015 (tied for the most in the league) and most importantly got the big three of Cody Bjorklund, Timmy Perston, and Peter Woodside to come back. Throughout the season, the league saw the budding of a new star in Portland, Raphael Hayes, who proved that at any time he could break through for a five point game. The addition of Hayes stepping up could be the difference in the Stags making their breakthrough. Their record (which is tied for the second best all time) included a 9-0 record against the Western Conference, joining the 2013 Boston Whitecaps as the only team to go undefeated against their conference in the regular season.
All Time Series: Portland leads 8-5
Seattle (7-3) is a team that really found their strength at the end of last year and has rode that train into this season. With the loss of Mark Burton in the offseason this team became better by replacing his spot with Khalif El-Salaam. This year El-Salaam primarily saw the disc in his hand rather than being a downfield threat, but also keep Clay Dewey-Valentine back with him to help facilitate and the Rainmakers were rolling. The team went on a seven game winning streak in the middle of the season, the fourth best in MLU history and has their second best record in team history. The only problem is El-Salaam only played in four games this season (3-1) but scored no less than eight points in each match. He will be most likely missing this match with the Mixed Final for the WUGC taking place on the same day in London.
Offensive Edge: Portland, slightly
The same prediction as last season, because not much has changed besides the Rainmakers loss of Burton. Portland runs a strict offensive unit with only six players getting 80+ O-line points on the season. It is a group that has been playing with each other for two entire seasons and produced a 74.7 percent offensive scoring efficiency. With a tight offensive line, the experienced unit scored the most points in a season in league history (228). Seattle's offense is one that is often huck happy but definitely toned it down this season. Surprisingly they have the highest touches per offensive possession (TPOP) of the entire league at 6.178 but that does not mean they will not take the opportunity when they have it. Without El-Salaam this weekend the team will still have a strong contingent holding the fort with Daniel Trytiak, Gavin McKibben, Brad Houser, Steve Gussin, and Peter Ostergaard who all have been forgotten about behind the lead duo.
Defensive Edge: Portland
It is easy to get caught up in the hype of the Stags defense with Woodside leading the charge. Rightfully so Portland's defense was phenomenal this year; fewest points allowed (149), most blocks in a season (159) , most breaks in a season (107). They run another tight ship with eight players seeing a majority of the playing time and total 76 of their blocks on the year. There has not been a game where the defense did not put the offense in a difficult or must score situation. In addition to Woodside, Riley Meinershagen, and Topher Davis will be some top players to watch going into this one. The Rainmakers' defense is not too shabby themselves, Henry Phan, who has the fortitude to be playing on the offensive line, has led the unit. With Evan Klein and Cam Bailey on as well, the team can actually match up well with the Portland offense. The difference will be which team can convert when the other O-line makes a rare mistake and Seattle is too huck happy to capitalize on it.
Special Teams: Seattle
The Stags are a really top heavy team. The top units are great, probably the best in the league, but when the secondary lines need to come in who can step up for Portland. Seattle has a supporting cast that has been worked on both sides of the disc all season. There are reliable players that have spent time playing both sides as well, looking at Chris Rupp, Todd Sliva, and Matthew Neeley as players who could step up. The Stags have not been in a dire situation all season, besides the Boston game where Tad Jensen broke through for five assists and 30/30 throws. If Seattle can keep up the pace this will be where the Rainmakers can win.
Why Portland Will Win:
Well they are due to win right? The team has lost the previous two Western championships and this season they look even better than they did the year before. In 2016 this team has four of the top ten players in the league with Bjorkland, Hayes, Woodside, and Perston. The offense is patient with the disc and really waits for when to take their chances. It has led to their offense being the best in the league and their defense being the best in the league so what could go wrong.
Why Portland Will Lose:
It will not be because they are not prepared or expecting to win. Last year Seattle brought an entire new defensive scheme in basically shutting down Bjorklund to throw their offense off. This game expect something similar. Once you get past this top group there is big fall off and a group of players that have not proven themselves this season. If Portland were to fall behind a break or two look out there may be another upset.
Why Seattle Will Win:
The Rainmakers have not shown the Stags everything they have up their sleeve this season. With some different pressures by the defense and a calm and patient defensive offense they will be able to keep up with Portland. If Seattle can match the Stags point for point and keep it close put your money on the Rainmakers. The offense is quick and calmer than before and the defense has a strong offensive presence. This team beat Portland last year without El-Salaam so who is to say they cannot do it again.
Why Seattle Will Lose:
Portland can be suffocating on offense and defense. With a younger team like Seattle, patience will be hard to come by. Give the Stags a slight lead or a couple breaks and look for the Rainmakers to resort back to their deep game. Against a team that is now just as athletic as Seattle, they cannot rely to come down with every 50/50 disc.
And the Winner is??
Portland 24-22; Star Player: Ben McGinn
Again it will be a closer one than most anticipated (same prediction as last year), but Portland will be ready. This is a team that has been on a mission all season long and not even the Rainmakers will stay in their way. With Bjorklund and Hayes likely to be covered by the clever defense of Seattle, look for McGinn to have a great performance on Saturday. McGinn looks to spread the disc around more so than the other two and attacking at all angles will always throw off the defense's preparation. The Rainmaker defense will not be able to take advantage of all opportunities they will be given on turnovers and allow the Stags to get breaks back.
Again it will be a closer one than most anticipated (same prediction as last year), but Portland will be ready. This is a team that has been on a mission all season long and not even the Rainmakers will stay in their way. With Bjorklund and Hayes likely to be covered by the clever defense of Seattle, look for McGinn to have a great performance on Saturday. McGinn looks to spread the disc around more so than the other two and attacking at all angles will always throw off the defense's preparation. The Rainmaker defense will not be able to take advantage of all opportunities they will be given on turnovers and allow the Stags to get breaks back.